Will AI Take Our Jobs?
Concerns over AI replacing humans are not new but rather a conversation that began almost a century ago, by John Maynard Keynes. Not only Milton’s sidekick but also famous for coining the term technological unemployment. Where innovation outpaces new jobs and the average working week comprises fifteen working hours, with the remainder spent on leisure and culture. Somewhat controversial at the time as it is now, its interesting to take a quick peek back at the debate.
In the 1940’s Karl Compton (President of MIT) took the baton, through the application of economics to his question “Are machines the genii which spring from Aladdin’s Lamp of Science to supply every need and desire of man, or are they Frankenstein monsters which will destroy man who created them?”. Concluding that from an economical perspective advancements had created more jobs than the number replaced, declaring technological unemployment a myth. An argument met head on by Lewis Stark who introduced rate of exchange to the argument - would technological advancement remove jobs at a greater rate than replacing them. This is a hundred year old ongoing conversation with dozens of key contributors.
Keynes called it, Compton argued it and many have since debated it. President Barack Obama had a modern take on it in his leaving speech when he cited “the relentless pace of automation that makes a lot of good middle-class jobs obsolete.” Most recently Elon Musk and Rishi Sunak too, at a 2023 AI Safety Summit. Mirroring Keynes so some degree, Musk explained his Utopian viewpoint with a controversial declaration - thanks to AI there will be a time when “no job is needed”. Going on to explain that “we won’t have universal basic income, we’ll have universal high income”. Responding perhaps to Compton’s machines supplying every need and desire for humankind.
It seems highly unlikely that we’ll all be enjoying a fully funded life of leisure in our lifetime but AI integration is set to continue, and it's exciting. On the cusp of the big AI wave last year, Goldman Sachs suggested that generative AI could boost global GDP by 7%, enhancing productivity, innovation and efficiency across industries worldwide. What remains to be seen is the rate of exchange, the real crux of this conversation. Whilst we cannot control the flow of AI integration into our lives and nor should we, we can control its rate of exchange - Responsible AI.
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